Update, Thursday afternoon: The National Weather Service anticipates two heavy rounds of rainfall through Saturday. The first will begin this evening through Friday afternoon. The second will begin Saturday afternoon into the evening.
Flash flooding is an increasing concern as rainfall totals continue to climb, generally along the I-30/US-67 corridor. Along with this, there is what the service is calling a "potential for severe weather" with Saturday's weather front passage of strong winds and isolated tornadoes.
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Update, Wednesday morning: The National Weather Service expects heavy rain "to possible excessive" to last through tonight. Most of the storm will have moved to the southeast part of the state by Thursday morning, although some limited rain is possible through the morning.
Currently the heaviest rain is a band from the southwest part of the state through the central region. Flooding threat remains in place throughout the state, however.
Today's forecast had no mention of freezing rain for tonight.
Rain begins again, however, late Thursday through Sunday morning as the front moves back north. This will be another 4 to 6 inch rainfall, on top of what we are getting now. As such, the threat for flooding will increase.
And Saturday night brings a chance for severe weather as an upper level storm system comes in from the west.
We will continue to update.
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Update, Monday night: The National Weather Service is calling for 4 to 6 inches of rain across the state, beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday with rain on into the weekend. NWS offices in Tulsa, Little Rock, Memphis and Shreveport have issued Flood and Flash Flood watches.
Per the service: "At this time, the focus for heaviest rainfall is expected to be along and north/west of the Interstate 30/US 67 corridor on Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and along and southeast of the Interstate30/US67 corridor during the day Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
With this much rain expected, river flooding will be possible. This includes, but is not limited to the Black, Cache, Ouachita and White Rivers."
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The National Weather Service, North Little Rock, is predicting heavy rain across the state beginning Tuesday and into Wednesday. A chance of freezing rain for the very northern and northwest parts of the state arrives Wednesday night into Thursday as temperatures drop.
The source of the rain is a slow-moving cold front carrying Gulf moisture into the region.
Per the service: “The front will finally push through Thursday, briefly stall along the gulf coast before lifting back to the north for additional rain chances next weekend.”
During the rain the service calls out concern for flash flooding and eventual river flooding, this depending on where the rain axis develops. Worst-case is for the axis to develop on the southeast, which has been very rainy this season. Best-case would be for a north and west axis, over what has been a comparatively dry region.
As temps drop Wednesday night there is a minimal chance of freezing rain going north and west, with the very tip of Van Buren County, below Marshall, at the southeast border of the freeze line.
The ultimate impact of the rain, including projected rain totals, is dependant on where the axis sets up as the front makes its slow move through the state. Regardless, rain is expected to be widespread.
We will update this story as further information is available.